2012

Gubernatorial Midterm Slumps

Reprint No. 2012:42

Author(s): Olle Folke and James M. SnyderYear: 2012 Title: American Journal of Political Science Volume (No.): 56 (4) Pages: 931–948
Online article (restrictions may apply)


This article studies gubernatorial midterm slumps in U.S. state legislative elections. We employ a regression discontinuity design, which allows us to rule out the hypothesis that the midterm slump simply reflects a type of “reversion to the mean” generated by simple partisan swings or the withdrawal of gubernatorial coattails or “anticipatory balancing.” Our results show that the party of the governor experiences an average seat-share loss of about 3.5 percentage points. We also find evidence suggesting that a large share of the variation in gubernatorial midterm slumps can be accounted for by (1) crude partisan balancing and (2) referendums on state economic performance, with approximately equal weight given to each.


Reference:
Folke, Olle and James M. Snyder (2012), "Gubernatorial Midterm Slumps". American Journal of Political Science 56(4), 931–948.

Elgar Companion to

Social Capital and Health

Martin Ljunge okt 2018.jpg

Martin Ljunge, IFN, is the author of a chapter, "Trust promotes health: addressing reverse causality by studying children of immigrants", in a new book edited by Sherman Folland and Eric Nauenberg. The cutting edge of research is presented, covering the ever-expanding social capital field.

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