2012

Gubernatorial Midterm Slumps

Reprint No. 2012:42

Author(s): Olle Folke and James M. SnyderYear: 2012 Title: American Journal of Political Science Volume (No.): 56 (4) Pages: 931–948
Online article (restrictions may apply)


This article studies gubernatorial midterm slumps in U.S. state legislative elections. We employ a regression discontinuity design, which allows us to rule out the hypothesis that the midterm slump simply reflects a type of “reversion to the mean” generated by simple partisan swings or the withdrawal of gubernatorial coattails or “anticipatory balancing.” Our results show that the party of the governor experiences an average seat-share loss of about 3.5 percentage points. We also find evidence suggesting that a large share of the variation in gubernatorial midterm slumps can be accounted for by (1) crude partisan balancing and (2) referendums on state economic performance, with approximately equal weight given to each.


Reference:
Folke, Olle and James M. Snyder (2012), "Gubernatorial Midterm Slumps". American Journal of Political Science 56(4), 931–948.

Interdisciplinary European Studies

Trust in the European Union in Challenging Times

2018-Trust-in-the-European-Union-by-Oxelheim.jpg

This is the first book in the Interdisciplinary European Studies collection. This volume provides an interdisciplinary perspective on trust in the EU from the vantage point of political science, law and economics. Lars Oxelheim, Lund University and affiliated to IFN, is one of the authors.

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To present ongoing research informal brown-bag seminars are held on Mondays at 11:30 am. This is an opportunity for IFN researchers to test ideas and results.

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In addition, IFN organizes seminars open to the public. Topics for these are derived from the IFN research.

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