2006–2010

Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict

Reprint No. 2009:14

Author(s): Thomas TangeråsYear: 2009 Title: Economics of Governance Volume (No.): 10 (2) Pages: 99–117
Online article (restrictions may apply)


This is a game-theoretic analysis of the link between regime type and international conflict. Democratic leaders can credibly be punished for bad conflict outcomes, whereas autocratic leaders cannot. Due to the fear of being thrown out of office, democratic leaders are (i) more selective about the wars they initiate and (ii) on average win more of the wars they start. Foreign policy behaviour is found to display strategic complementarities. Therefore, the likelihood of interstate war is lowest in the democratic dyad (pair), highest in the autocratic dyad with the mixed dyad in between. The results are consistent with empirical findings.


Reference:
Tangerås, Thomas (2009), "Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict". Economics of Governance 10(2), 99–117.

Thomas Tangerås

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Martin Ljunge, IFN, is the author of a chapter, "Trust promotes health: addressing reverse causality by studying children of immigrants", in a new book edited by Sherman Folland and Eric Nauenberg. The cutting edge of research is presented, covering the ever-expanding social capital field.

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