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Journal of Conflict Resolution

When Does Terror Induce a State of Emergency? And What Are the Effects?

Vetenskaplig artikel på engelska
Bjørnskov, Christian och Stefan Voigt (2020). ”When Does Terror Induce a State of Emergency? And What Are the Effects?”. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(4), 579–613.

Christian Bjørnskov, Stefan Voigt

The relationship between terrorist activities and states of emergency has never been explored in a cross-country perspective. This article is a first step to change that. Given that a terror act has been committed, what are the factors that lead governments to declare a state of emergency (SOE)—or refrain from declaring it? And given that a SOE has been declared, what are the effects thereof? On the basis of seventy-nine countries all having Western-style constitutions, we find that more terrorist incidents increase the likelihood of a SOE. Interestingly, emergencies are less likely to be declared in election years, supposedly because governments believe them to be unpopular. Once a SOE is declared, it generally leads to substantially more government repression. Finally, countries already under a SOE are more likely to suffer from additional terror attacks, challenging the effectiveness of states of emergency.

Christian Bjørnskov

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